| 摘 要: 贵州茶产业凭借优惠的扶持政策和高标准、高质量的茶产品成为特色产业，为测度影响贵州茶叶生产质量的因素，分析了贵州茶叶种植的气候与环境等因素，结合Stata17软件设计建立了茶叶生产计量模型，利用稳健最小二乘法回归与工具变量法先后建立六个不同条件下的模型，对各变量间的关系进行了深入的统计分析。研究发现，在贵州特有的气候与环境条件下，茶叶的播种面积、施肥量、农药施用量是影响贵州茶叶生产最主要的因素。其中，施肥量的系数为负，影响程度最大，表明过多的施肥会破坏土壤性状，造成茶叶减产，而农药施用量、茶叶播种面积、农业增加值系数均为正值，对茶叶总产量有正向影响。 |
| 关键词: 茶产业；计量模型；工具变量法 |
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中图分类号: TP311.5
文献标识码: A
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| Measurement of Influencing Factors of Tea Production in Guizhou based on Instrumental Variable Method |
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ZHANG Zhaowei, TANG Xiaoping
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(School of Economics, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China)
463350918@qq.com; tomshoping_bio36@whu.edu.cn
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| Abstract: Tea industry in Guizhou has become a featured industry with preferential policies and high-standard and high-quality tea products. In order to measure factors affecting tea production in Guizhou, the climate and environment factors of tea production in Guizhou are analyzed, and a tea production measurement model is designed and established with Stata17 software. Six models under different conditions are established successively by using robust Ordinary Least Square (OSL) regression and instrumental variable method, and the relationship between the variables is analyzed deeply. It is found that under the special climate and environment of Guizhou, the sowing area, fertilizer application amount and pesticide application amount of tea are the most important factors affecting the tea production in Guizhou. Among them, the coefficient of fertilizer application is negative, which has the deepest influence, indicating that excessive fertilization would destroy soil properties and thus reduce tea production. While the coefficient of pesticide application amount, tea sown area and agricultural added value are all positive, which has a positive influence on the total tea production. |
| Keywords: tea industry; measurement model; instrumental variable analysis |
