| 摘 要: 气候变化评估对智慧农业的影响至关重要。通过2010—2017年实测陇中地区小麦田间数据对APSIM(Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator)模型进行参数校正和验证,结合CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5)模式的未来气候情景数据和验证后的APSIM模型对播期和种植密度变化下的小麦产量及生物量进行模拟。结果表明,APSIM模型在调参验证后,模拟精度较高;在气候变化情景下,增加种植密度处理春小麦产量和生物量较高,提前播种处理春小麦产量和生物量较高;增加种植密度且早播处理有利于产量形成。未来气候变化情景下,播种密度为237 kg·hm-2、播种日期为3月10日时,可提高4%的春小麦籽粒产量。模拟结果可为未来气候变化下的甘肃陇中旱区雨养小麦播期及种植密度管理提供借鉴。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化;CMIP5;APSIM-wheat;播种密度 |
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中图分类号: TP391.7
文献标识码: A
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| 基金项目: 甘肃省高等学校创新基金支持项目(2021B-122);甘肃省教育厅产业支撑计划项目(2021CYZC-15) |
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| Impact of Future Climate Change on the Sowing Date and Planting Density of Rain-fed Spring Wheat in Arid Area Based on APSIM Model |
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HAO Guanyu, LIU Qiang, WANG Jun
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(College of Inf ormation Science and Technology, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730000, China)
2564859598@qq.com; liuq@gsau.edu.cn; julianwong82@163.com
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| Abstract: Assessing the impact of climate change on smart agriculture is crucial. In this paper, the parameters of APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) model are calibrated and verified by wheat field data from 2010 to 2017 in Longzhong region. The future climate scenario data of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5) model and the validated APSIM model are used to simulate wheat yield and biomass under changes in sowing date and planting density. The results show that the APSIM model has higher simulation accuracy after parameter adjustment and verification. In the context of climate change, increasing planting density results in higher spring wheat yield and biomass, and early sowing results in higher spring wheat yield and biomass. Increasing planting density and early sowing treatment are beneficial for generating yield. In the context of future climate change, the spring wheat grain yield is expected to increase by 4 % when the sowing density is 237 kg·hm-2 and the sowing date is March 10. The simulation results can provide reference for the management of sowing date and planting density of rain-fed wheat in the arid area of central Gansu under future climate change. |
| Keywords: climate change; CMIP5; APSIM-wheat; sowing density |
