| 摘 要: 公交到站时间预测作为智能公交的核心内容之一，不仅可以极大地提高公交服务满意度进而提高公交出行 率，而且可为智能公交调度系统的优化提供数据依据。本文将公交GPS数据和公交站点与线路等GIS数据进行融合、处 理与分析，基于公交车轨迹数据和路段在空间关系和时空分布上的分析和处理，设置一定的离站距离阈值对当前公交站 点进行缓冲区分析，搜索在最近一段时间内停靠该站点的公交车轨迹数据，获取不同车辆的轨迹信息，进行公交到站时 间预测研究，建立预测模型，推算出公交到站时间，并以经过广州市体育中心公交站的多条公交线路为例验证预测方法 的准确性。研究表明:通过模型预测所得多条公交线路的公交到站时间与实际调查记录时间误差较小。 |
| 关键词: GPS轨迹数据；公交到站时间；缓冲区分析；数据融合；GIS |
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中图分类号: TP274
文献标识码: A
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| 基金项目: 广东省高等职业教育品牌专业建设项目：智能交通技术运用（2016gzpp044）；中国物流学会研究课题（2015CSLKT3-202）；广东省科技重大专项（2014B010112008）. |
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| Research on the Bus Arrival Time Prediction Method Based on GPS Track Data |
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LI Shaowei,CAO Chentao,YANG Ji1,2
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1.( 1.Guangdong Communication Polytechnic, Intelligent Traffic Engineering Technology Application Center, Guangzhou 510650, China;2.
2.Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, China)
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| Abstract: As one of the core contents of intelligent transit,the bus arrival prediction can not only increase the satisfaction of bus service and the trip rate of public transport,but also provide data basis for the optimization of the intelligent public transportation dispatching system.In this paper,the GPS data of the bus and the GIS data of the bus station and the bus route are integrated,processed and analyzed.Based on the analysis and processing of the bus track data and the road segment in the spatial relation and the spatial and temporal distribution, a certain distance threshold from the station is set to carry out the buffer analysis,search the bus track data of the station in the last period of time,obtain the track information of different vehicles,predict the bus arrival duration,establish the prediction model and calculate the bus arrival time.Multiple bus routes of Guangzhou Sports Center are taken as cases to verify the accuracy of the prediction method.The results show that the time errors between the prediction values and the actual records of multiple bus routes are suitably small. |
| Keywords: GPS track data;bus arrival time;buffer analysis;data fusion;GIS |
